Confirmation bias

- Confirmation bias is described as seeking out evidence that confirms our initial perceptions, ignoring contrary information. It's a little like a debate. Think about what happens there. Each side prepares for their argument with facts, figures and studies that will support their position and they will disregard or find fault with the opposing viewpoint to win the debate. Confirmation bias gets on one side of that debate and allows us to only accept what supports our argument. Confirmation bias can make a bad situation worse because we become stubborn and refuse to change our opinion. We seek out information evidence that justifies our position or makes us feel like we were right all along. For example, let's say Bob has an idea for a new product that he believes will be well received by the public. He does market research and presents findings that support his initial idea. When his coworker presents data that shows the product won't be profitable, bob discounts it. Bob has data. His coworker has data and both people believe their data proves the point. Confirmation bias becomes a problem when Bob pushes the product to market based solely on his data. To combat confirmation bias, we need to review the data we have in our possession, all of it. Review the pros and the cons to objectively make a decision based on both sides of the data. Look for data that disproves your point. Ask others to review your conclusions. The best way to get over confirmation bias is to find someone who is unbiased that you can present both sides to. If you develop a standard system of evaluation for all new products, you'll be better positioned to make the right decision. The confirmation bias isn't limited to new products. We also see it in other aspects of business and we overcome it in the same way. By now, you should have quite a few notes in your notebook and here are a few more questions to consider. Are there standard systems in place within your company for employee evaluations? Is your work regularly reviewed rather than once a year during an annual performance review? Is there a consistent data and reporting that can be easily used for rewarding positive behavior? Is there a standard process in place for spending? How are funds allocated to different departments? Are requests evaluated objectively? Is there a bias towards tried and true methods or novel methods? Without data, we're subject to the whims of our mood that day and our gut instinct about people which if you've been paying attention, is highly subjective and unconsciously influenced.